According to newly published, independent research by Frontier Economics (21 June 2026) the Midlands could benefit from a massive £1,386mn increase in GDP if the UK joins the EU. To put that in perspective it could build two new Midlands community hospitals (2 x £400mn), four new primary schools (4 x £10mn), four new secondary schools (4 x £35mn), 2,000 care home places (2,000 x £80,000), 200 new GP surgeries (200 x £1mn) every year and still have millions in change. It’s the kind of additional funding that could transform day-to-day life in the Midlands for everyone.
The research took account of five scenarios, ranging from further divergence from the EU with greater regulatory distance, looser trade ties, and moving away from the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) baseline (scenario 5), to closer UK-EU integration, equivalent to reinstated EU membership (Scenario 4).
- Closer integration on agrifood, including via a bespoke agreement on Sanitary and Phyto Sanitary Measures, as envisioned under the current approach to UK-EU reset.
- Deeper regulatory alignment between the UK and the EU on goods and services.
- Closer integration on trade via more liberal rules of origin
- More liberal rules of origin and deeper regulatory alignment between the UK and the EU on goods and services.
- A “TCA-minus” scenario in which there is greater regulatory distance, and consequently trade frictions, than at present.
Scenario 4 is very close to full EU membership and includes deep integration with the EU single market and customs union, while option 5 assumes erosion of the limited mutual recognition that currently exists. A further two scenarios analysed the impact of US sanctions on scenarios four and five.
The report concludes that joining the EU could grow the UK economy, as measured by GDP, by 1.5-3.6%, or at least £92bn, and those are conservative estimates. While the benefits would be quite evenly spread across the UK, the regions benefiting the most compared to the UK government’s current approach would be the West Midlands, followed by Yorkshire and the East Midlands. The combined benefit to the Midlands would be a massive £1,386mn EVERY YEAR. This is welcome news given the West Midlands is one of the most badly impacted UK regions in the UK as a result of Brexit.
The making of the Midlands
The Midlands region has a strong history of trade in manufactured goods. For example 73% of West Midlands exports are in transport and machinery, thanks to its successful aerospace and automotive sectors. That is why further regulatory alignment with the EU, together with more liberal rules of origin, deliver particular gains for us. They also provide robust safeguards against punitive US tariffs.
The new research shows how EU membership would boost the West Midlands economy by £873mn per year, and the East Midlands by £513mn per year. Across the UK there would be an increase of around 5% for all exports. Even in a tariff-prone world, this would largely undo the long-term damage done to the UK economy by leaving the EU, estimated by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in the UK as around 4% with other credible estimates putting the damage at up to 8% (National Bureau of Economic Research in the USA).
The public are with us
YouGov polling conducted in April 2026 found that 53% of British voters support EU membership, with just 32% opposed. There is little support for keeping UK-EU relations as they are now (31% of voters) and 50% oppose any further divergence from the EU.
Some have argued that benefits from the UK’s post-Brexit trade deals outweigh any Brexit downsides. However government estimates of the projected increase across all six free trade agreements (FTA) agreed since Brexit (Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, India, and the Gulf Cooperation Council) is approximately £15bn in annual long-term GDP. By contrast, EU membership would be worth at least £92bn every year, more than 6 times the total gained from these FTAs.
Naomi Smith, Chief Executive of Best for Britain, said:
“The birthplaces of industrial manufacturing and Sir Isaac Newton, and now home to bustling cities, the British Grand Prix, and Jaguar Land Rover cars, the East and West Midlands are hubs of high-end innovation, but after a decade of trade friction, soaring bills and a cost of living crisis, the regions are still punching far below their weight.
“Both the public and the data are clear: as this research sets out, EU membership is the quickest and the most popular way to get Britain growing again – and, as Prime Minister, Andy Burnham now has a chance to transform the fortunes of the Midlands, put money back into people’s pockets and help local businesses thrive.”
Politics and partnerships
Both the Conservatives and Reform UK oppose even the UK-EU reset, let alone any move to closer cooperation or integration with the EU.
Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservatives, called the reset a step backwards and said ‘dynamic alignment’ would make the UK a ‘rule taker’. Nigel Farage went further by promising that Reform UK would ‘scrap’ the May 2025 Summit commitments entirely.
Conservatives and Reform UK have also committed to withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights. In response the EU could well suspend some or all of the TCA, leading to even greater economic damage. They would take us back to scenario 5 of the Frontier Economics research, “TCA-minus”, with a consequential, long-term reduction in UK GDP of between 0.5 to 0.8%, equating to a £28bn hit to the economy rather than the £92bn bonus of EU membership.
In May 2025, the Labour government under Sir Keir Starmer negotiated the UK-EU reset, setting out a new UK-EU strategic partnership and common understanding, agreeing to annual summit meetings, and committing to strengthened cooperation. The Frontier Economics report demonstrates the benefits of such closer cooperation and emphasises the economic prize of continuing down this path.
According to Best for Britain, membership of the EU would have a “…truly transformative effect on the UK economy. By modelling the key benefits of membership – namely, closer integration into the EU Single Market and deeper integration on goods trade associated with a Customs Union – we see long term growth estimates of at least 2.5%-3.6%.”
Ellie Chowns, Green Party MP for North Herefordshire, said:
“The West Midlands has long been an industrial and agricultural powerhouse fuelling the whole of the UK – but while we are outside the EU, our local industries are operating with one hand tied behind their backs, unable to fulfil their immense potential.
“The Green Party has long championed Britain’s place in Europe. This report demonstrates that the West Midlands would benefit most if we rejoin the EU – creating jobs, boosting investment and designing the innovative technologies that will help us tackle the climate crisis.”
Joining the EU gives the Midlands the biggest boost
The Frontier Economics report shows how our prosperity as a nation, and the Midlands economy in particular, are dependent on our relationship with the EU. Further integration brings substantial economic benefits, while moving further away from the EU would lead to real economic damage.
The UK’s former industrial heartlands in the Midlands stand to gain the most from the increased trade in goods that would follow closer EU integration. The prize is an extra £1,386mn every year, enough to make daily life better for all of us in the Midlands.
This article has been adapted from two press releases by Best for Britain.
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