The Midlands is experiencing the full force of climate change with wetter winters, drier summers, increased heat-related deaths, a five-fold increase in floods since 2000, damage to local infrastructure, drops in crop yields and economic impacts. If you’re not worried about climate change in the Midlands, you should be. But there’s good news too.
Climate change brings heat and rain
During the 20th century average annual temperatures increased by 0.6C in the West Midlands and 0.5C or more in the East Midlands. This might not seem much but actually represents a fundamental, systemic change that amplifies weather volatility leading to increased frequency of very hot days (exceeding 30C), intensified heatwaves, changes to water cycles, sea levels and growing seasons.
This warming trend has accelerated in recent decades, with the warmest years predominantly occurring in the last few decades.
The Midlands is seeing wetter winters and drier summers, changes characteristic of climate change impacts. Extreme weather events, as predicted by climate change scientists, provide compelling evidence of climate change impacts in the Midlands. The 2020 heatwaves led to 2,556 excess all-cause deaths across England, the highest mortality since the introduction of the Heatwave Plan for England in 2004, with significant mortality occurring during heat events in the Midlands.
An increase in floods and droughts
Not surprisingly extreme weather events have also led to an increase in floods across the region with a five-fold increase in floods (water levels exceeding 5 meters) compared to earlier periods across the rivers Severn, Wye and Teme. The wettest 18 months on record for England, a record high since the Met Office began collecting data in 1836, were between October 2022 and March 2024, leading to significant soil damage and reduced agricultural production.
Recent years have seen unprecedented drought conditions in the Midlands. July 2025 saw both the East and West Midlands officially declared in drought after experiencing the driest start to a year since 1976 and the driest spring in 132 years, with Yorkshire receiving only 66% of its long-term average May rainfall.
The Howden reservoir in Derbyshire reached critically low levels at just 39% full, while three heatwaves during summer 2025 rapidly drained water supplies. River flows in the region reached their lowest June levels since 1976.
Climate change is already affecting you!
- Your Health
Analysis of the 2020 heatwave showed that 68% of total heatwave excess mortality occurred during the longest heat episode with 2,244 excess deaths in the 65+ age group. 9% of those excess deaths were in the East Midlands and 11% in the West Midlands.
Heat extremes can worsen health risks for older people, those with chronic conditions such as cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, mental health (including Alzheimer’s and Dementia) and diabetes related conditions, and can make working conditions more challenging. The urban heat island effect means those living in cities are particularly hard hit.
- The Midlands economy and infrastructure
Extreme weather events such as winter storms or summer heatwaves are associated with disruption to, or even complete loss of essential services such as energy supplies, water, transportation and communication networks.
Recovering such services, and building preventative infrastructure, comes at a high cost to taxpayers and local authorities and, as anyone whose home has been flooded knows, at a high personal cost.
An analysis of just three historic weather events, Storm Doris in February 2017, the heatwave in July and August of 2022 and the flash floods of the summer 2023, cost the West Midlands Combined Authority alone over £21mn.
- Agriculture and the environment
Climate change impacts the Midlands farming community and the environment through more frequent extreme weather, such as droughts and heavy rainfall, which damage crops, lead to soil erosion, and increases flood risks. These conditions reduce yields, cause heat stress in livestock, and make the land more difficult to work, affecting farm planning and profitability. Farmers are forced to adapt by changing what and how they farm, but face concerns about future food security and making a living from their land.
England is already one of the most nature-depleted countries in the world due to our long history of industrialisation and land use changes, particularly in the Midlands, and the green environment is integral to countering and mitigating climate change effects.
In the Midlands we have seen the recent increases in floods, wildfires, air and river pollution, and erosion of peat moors further damage our natural environment, reducing its capacity to act as a natural carbon store, and increasing the rate of nature-depletion.
Climate change in the Midlands is going to get worse, much worse
According to the Met Office UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) maximum temperatures in the Midlands could be between 2.9C and 7.5C warmer than the baseline period (1981-2000) by 2099.These are massive temperature increases and the consequences take us into unknown and troubling territory. Extreme temperatures are likely even to exceed this – as experienced when the 2022 heatwave reached 40.3°C in England.
Hotter summers are projected to cause a significant increase in heat-related illnesses and premature deaths. The urban heat island effect is expected to exacerbate these risks in major urban centres, with risks including the failure of heat-sensitive equipment and disruption of public services. Working conditions will become increasingly difficult and our homes, designed for a more benign climate, will become increasingly uncomfortable and expensive to run.
Summers in the Midlands could be up to 42% drier than the baseline period and winters 24% wetter. This has huge implications for agriculture, water supplies, flooding, wildfires, the natural environment and our day to day lives.
The East Midlands is a major energy producer for the UK and is also important logistically due to its central location, with main road, rail and air infrastructure. Climate change and extreme weather events have implications for all of these and will impact places, people, businesses and services.
With just a 4C rise in global temperatures floods are likely to double with an additional one million homes exposed to high flood risk. In the East Midlands very large numbers of people live in flood risk areas, which can have direct physical and mental health impacts in the event of a flood.
The West Midlands is projecting increases in flooding, heatwaves, transport disruption, infrastructure damage leading to higher economic costs, and healthcare impacts, all hitting the most vulnerable communities the hardest.
The Midlands should be leading the fightback against climate change
In the face of overwhelming scientific evidence, and the evidence of our own lived experience, there can be no doubt that we are changing our climate in ways never before seen in human experience.
We could choose to ignore climate change; pretend it isn’t really happening. But sooner or later the impacts will hit us so hard they can no longer be ignored. The longer we procrastinate, the more expensive and painful the solutions will become. Both the Conservatives and Reform UK ltd propose to scrap our net zero targets, putting the UK’s climate leadership at risk, and ultimately adding to the costs and difficulties of addressing the inevitable.
The good news is we still have time to do something about it, and the Midlands is uniquely positioned not just to help with solutions, but to take a global leadership role in the new green industries.
We can once again be at the heart of an industrial revolution with our industrial strengths in energy and low carbon, automotive, aerospace, rail, advanced manufacturing, food production, distribution, life sciences, creative and digital.
We can lead and prosper, or follow and suffer – that’s not such a difficult decision is it?
