General election 2024: more about the West Midlands

In less than a month, the country will go to the polls to vote in what is shaping up to be a seismic general election. After 14 years, the Conservative government looks to be on the ropes. On 4 July, will the electorate land the knockout blow?

We take a closer look at some more of the West Midlands – Birmingham, Staffordshire and Stratford-on-Avon.

Birmingham

The UK’s second largest city has always played a pivotal role in the country’s political sphere, positioned right in the middle of the country, with more than a million residents. Looking at it from the outside, Birmingham has been a Labour stronghold for quite some time. Eight out of its 10 constituencies voted Labour in 2019, but the city’s red roots go back further than that.

Historically red

A majority seven out of ten constituencies in Birmingham have voted Labour for the past 27 years: Edgbaston, Hall Green, Hodge Hill, Ladywood, Perry Barr, Selly Oak and Erdington. Yardley is the eighth and most recent addition to the Labour stronghold. Jess Phillips took it from the Liberal Democrats in 2015. Erdington has been reliably Labour since 1936. The last time the Conservatives won there predates World War II. The constituency is also the only one in the West Midlands predicted to have close to 100% vote for Labour, showing their unfaltering faith.

The outliers

Nonetheless, a couple of outliers plus the recent boundary changes could begin to shift things in favour of the Conservatives.

Sutton Coldfield is the main Conservative foothold. It’s been held by Conservative MPs since it was formed in 1945 and led by the most senior Conservative in the area, Andrew Mitchell.

Birmingham Northfield became Conservative in 2019 with Gary Sambrook winning with the smallest majority (1,640) in the city. The Conservative hold over Northfield may not be that strong but currently, the constituency does remain onside.

Boundary changes in Conservative favour

Recent boundary changes have divided Solihull and will create additional seats in the region. Hodge Hill acquires the north of the town, whilst the east part of Solihull joins the Meriden constituency to become Meriden and Solihull East, a seat that has a strong chance of falling into Conservative hands.

Another seat, Solihull West and Shirley, will also be created. Before the changes, Solihull was another stronghold for the Conservatives. Apart from the years 2005-2015, it has been Conservative since its creation in 1945 and they should have a high chance of keeping this new seat. However, the situation there is currently volatile. The incumbent, Julian Knight, was suspended from the Conservative parliamentary party in 2022 after it emerged he was being investigated by police over a claim of serious sexual assault. He is now running as an independent candidate. This could split the Conservatively-inclined vote in the constituency and hand what should be a very safe blue seat to Labour.

Staffordshire

Unless you live there, it’s possible that you might not be able to point to Staffordshire on a map. The West Midlands is a veritable jigsaw of land-locked counties and it can be hard to remember exactly how they fit together. Is Staffordshire north-west of Warwickshire or east a bit? It borders Wales, doesn’t it? No, hang on, that’s Shropshire.

Staffordshire rests its feet on Birmingham whilst its head reaches up to the footballers’ playground that is Cheshire. One outstretched hand could probably touch Derby, but the other would indeed have to stretch over Shropshire to hit Wales.

Infamous

In sharp contrast, its constituencies have been served by a surprisingly high concentration of famous, even infamous, MPs that you have definitely heard of. Stoke-on-Trent we have covered elsewhere. The remaining nine constituencies count such luminaries as Gavin Williamson, Bill Cash and – until last year – Chris Pincher among their public servants. Indeed, it is only thanks to Pincher’s, er, pinching habit that these constituencies aren’t completely blue-washed. At the by-election which resulted from his resignation, Tamworth chose Labour’s Sarah Edwards. She is working to be re-elected on 4 July.

Michael Fabricant (Lichfield) is famous for his hair and for being Andy Street’s rather surprising choice as boyfriend. Gavin Williamson (South Staffordshire) is notorious for keeping a tarantula in the office, for his bullying and for being the worst possible secretary of state for education at the worst possible time. Bill Cash (Stone) is a long-standing and long-raging Brexiter who led the Maastricht Rebellion against a beleaguered John Major in 1993. Aaron Bell (Newcastle-under-Lyme) has been on Only Connect twice and is now standing down. Perhaps he has realised that it is impossible for sensible Conservatives to survive in the current party. Even the otherwise-inconspicuous Karen Bradley (Staffordshire Moorlands) served as secretary of state for Northern Ireland under Theresa May. She wasn’t exactly over-qualified for the job. As she admitted herself, “I didn’t understand things like when elections are fought, for example, in Northern Ireland, people who are nationalists don’t vote for unionist parties and vice-versa.”

Eight become one

Three of the MPs are from the 2019 intake, Kate Kniveton in Burton, Theo Clarke in Stafford and Aaron Bell. Kniveton and Clarke are running again. Two – Cash and Fabricant – have held the same seats since 1997. Fabricant is still going strong but Cash is finally standing down this time. He is, after all, ~~127~~ 84 years old. His constituency, Stone, is anyway being rejigged by the latest round of boundary changes, as is South Staffordshire. Gavin Williamson will contest the resulting new seat of Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge.

On 4 July, according to Electoral Calculus, these eight blue and one red seats are likely to become one blue seat, six red seats and two that could go either way.

Stratford-on-Avon

Howls of consternation are echoing around the Stratford-on-Avon constituency, previously held by Nadhim Zahawi, after the Conservatives chose politically-homeless former Heywood and Middleton MP Chris Clarkson to fight the traditionally safe blue seat, eschewing local, and female, options.

With his previous constituency now abolished and with no discernible link to Shakespeare’s hometown, the Lancastrian Clarkson follows a trend of Conservative Party Central parachuting favourites into the Midlands market town.

Lib Dems for the win

With accusations of a ‘chicken run’ flying about, it remains to be see whether Clarkson can win over the Tory faithful in Stratford and district, but the Lib Dem candidate Manuela Perteghella, – a local resident who’s been a leading light on Stratford District Council for several years – has been busy winning hearts and minds while the Tories dithered. Her industry has paid off, with a recent poll showing her edging ahead of the Conservatives, although that was when it was assumed that Zahawi was still a contender.

After much wringing of hands while they considered their options, the Stratford Greens find themselves with another outsider carrying their flag in the shape of Stafford Borough Councillor Doug Rouxel. While it is eminently possible that a strengthening Green Party presence locally will mean that Rouxel may dilute her fan base, Perteghella still looks like one to watch. Tradition has shown that a strong Lib Dem showing in urban areas can be cancelled out by the tweed-clad country set, but that may be about to change this time around.

Other candidates

An already-split local Conservative association has had to contend with the establishment of Stratford CAN (Conservative Alternative to Nadhim) before the resignation of the notorious former chancellor. Aimed at promoting a local candidate, it’s doubtful that they will have been appeased by this latest appointment. Meanwhile, Labour has, perhaps unsurprisingly, failed to find an appropriate ‘local’ candidate and have forwarded Coventry City councillor Seyi Agboola as their fall guy.

Finally, the re-emergence of Nigel Farage at the helm of Reform will doubtless buoy their Stratford candidate James Crocker, and he will certainly pick up votes from disaffected Conservatives, especially among the older demographic that’s so prevalent in the area. However, Stratford-on-Avon is perhaps one of the last great bastions of ‘old school’ Conservatism, so the fight for the seat will be attritional, but whichever way it goes it’ll be a fascinating watch.The Stratford-on-Avon general election hustings will be hosted by the Stratford Herald at King Edward VI School on Monday 17 June, 7pm.

Update: Since this article was written, the Green Party have announced that although they are fielding a candidate, they do not intend to contest the seat. Sherron Guise’s statement said: “As a politician you have to make decisions based on what is right for your constituents, country and party. With the decision of who is going to be the next MP of Stratford-on-Avon looking like it will be between the Tories and the LibDems, I did not want to be responsible for splitting the vote.”