On 15 February, there is a by-election in Wellingborough. Labour are favourites to wrest it from the Conservatives but conjecture is rising that Reform UK could pull off a shock result and take second place. Should this come to pass, the political blast wave inflicted on an already-fragile Conservative Party might shatter it into fragments once and for all.
The Wellingborough by-election will be contested by candidates from all the mainstream political parties, plus four independents, someone from Britain First and Nick the Flying Brick of the Official Monster Raving Loony Party.
When the by-election was announced, it was generally felt that the government would probably keep the seat. Peter Bone had held it since 2005 and was returned in 2019 with an increased majority of more than 18k. But both Rishi Sunak and his party continue to tank in the polls and now, the Conservatives seem set to lose Wellingborough. It’s not even a given that they will hang on to second place.
It doesn’t help the government that it continually has to expend time and resources fighting off sabotage attempts from members ‒ or ex-members ‒ of its own side.
Exit Bone
Bone is a good example of such self-sabotage. Not only has he been thrown out of parliament and out of the party but even after his departure, he appeared intent on causing trouble.
The Sunday Times reported that, according to senior sources, he had threatened to stand as an independent in the by-election, potentially splitting the Conservative vote and letting the opposition barge straight through the middle. There are even suggestions that he considered standing as a Reform candidate.
A way had to be found to placate him. Somehow ‒ we know not exactly how ‒ Bone’s girlfriend, Helen Harrison, has ended up as the Conservative candidate. This seems to have done the trick and, in the end, the disgraced MP decided not to stand.
Enter Ben
However, as the government swats away one ex-Conservative, another heaves into view.
Reform UK’s candidate for the by-election is Ben Habib, one of the party’s deputy leaders. Habib is a successful property developer who has hovered around the fringes of British politics for some years.
Like Bone, he is pro-Brexit. He is so pro-Brexit, in fact, that he eventually abandoned his long support for the government, joined the Brexit Party and was elected as an MEP for London in May 2019. Only eight months later, the UK formally left the EU and Habib’s position in the European parliament vanished overnight.
When the Brexit Party morphed into Reform UK, Habib stayed with the newly-branded organisation and, last October, he was appointed as one of its two deputy leaders. Three weeks ago, he was confirmed as Reform UK’s candidate in the Wellingborough by-election. He is campaigning on a ticket of slashing taxes, slashing immigration and ditching Net Zero but he never lets anyone forget that the most ardent desire and wish of his heart is to “obliterate the Tory party”.
The polling paradox
Recent polling for Reform has been consistently impressive, with several polls putting them on 10% of the vote or above ‒ roughly level with the LibDems and higher than the Greens.
At the same time, Conservative poll numbers continue to fall and it seems likely that Reform’s numbers have risen at their expense. There is a feeling that, yet again, the government has only itself to blame. It bleats incessantly about ‘stopping the boats’ whilst simultaneously failing to manage the situation in any shape or form. The cruel, expensive and useless Rwanda plan is wasting both political capital and real money. Voters for whom irregular migration is an important issue might reasonably feel that Reform would do a better job.
However, sensible commentators remain sceptical about the party’s ability to translate its polling numbers into real votes. The Brexit Party/Reform UK has never had a single Westminster MP and currently has only six councillors across the whole of the UK. The working hypothesis is that their recent numbers are at least partly down to disgruntled Conservative voters making their displeasure felt. When push comes to shove, it is expected that many of these people will return to the true-blue fold.
Wellingborough
Will Wellingborough go down in history as the place where Reform UK finally lives up to its own hype? Probably not. BetFred still puts the Conservatives second on 9/2, well ahead of Reform on 25/1.
But their odds have shortened dramatically in recent weeks and the possibility remains. Habib portrays himself as a ‘real’ Brexiter and Wellingborough retains enough pro-Brexit sentiment that he could do well. Habib is perfectly happy to tap into the betrayal myths propagated by Richard Tice and Nigel Farage, that the government has mucked up Brexit and mucked up Britain. Only the true Brexiters and believers of Reform UK can be trusted to sort things out properly.
The fact that Reform’s ideas are unworkable and, in places, directly self-contradictory are irrelevant. Reform UK isn’t out to form a government, not yet at least. It’s out to cause as much trouble as possible for the Conservative Party. It is out to “obliterate the Tory party”.
The Conservative Party, as a single entity, is already fracturing as it is pulled into pieces by its warring factions. Speculation that Farage might join and ultimately take over the party refuses to go away. One more well-placed blow could shatter the party for good.
If Ben Habib beats Helen Harrison into second place on February 15, he might have lobbed a grenade into the heart of the Conservative Party that will do just that.
