In a few weeks’ time, the country will go to the polls to vote in what is shaping up to be a seismic general election. After 14 years of rule, the Conservative government looks to be on the ropes. On 4 July, will the electorate land the knockout blow? We look at the state of play in Lincolnshire, Leicestershire and Derbyshire.
Lincolnshire
In general elections, Lincolnshire typically votes Conservative. In 2019, seven of the nine constituencies returned Tory MPs with majorities of between 20,000 and 30,000. Scunthorpe and Lincoln were the exceptions with Tory majorities of 6,400 and 3,500 respectively.
Opinion polls now suggest both constituencies are clearly marginals. Unless they are wildly wrong, it would be a major surprise if Labour candidate Hamish Falconer wasn’t returned in Lincoln with a substantial majority, while former MP Nic Dakin, the Labour candidate in Scunthorpe, might reasonably expect to unseat his Tory opponent and resume his parliamentary career.
Immigration, the NHS, climate change and Brexit
Aside from the economy, specific factors will influence voting across the county. Immigration is one. Reform party leader Richard Tice is standing against incumbent Matt Warman in Boston and Skegness. The town recently housed a large number of asylum seekers, so expect the Tory vote to split as traditional supporters blame the party for not stopping the boats.
Edward Leigh’s support may decline in his Gainsborough constituency, home of the former RAF Scampton. Locals are vehemently opposed to the plan to house asylum seekers there, not least because the proposal also scuppered a significant business investment in the site.
Health Secretary Victoria Atkins could come under fire In Louth and Horncastle on the government’s record on the NHS. She also has to cope with fierce opposition to plans for oil drilling and bringing wind-generated electricity from the North Sea onshore and feeding it into the National Grid.
The climate crisis affects Scunthorpe, where the steel works is threatened. Plans for major solar farms on agricultural land in Grantham and Bourne (formerly Grantham and Stamford), Rutland and Stamford, and Gainsborough are fiercely opposed. Meanwhile boundary changes have taken place, while farmers and the fishing industry in Grimsby are counting the cost of the real effects of Brexit, in spite of promises made by the Conservatives.
How vulnerable are the Conservatives across the county? Local elections results last year and this year suggest: ‘quite significantly’. We will soon find out.
Leicestershire
The great Brexit realignment bypassed Leicestershire. Before the 2019 election, the county had seven Conservative MPs and, in the city of Leicester, three Labour ones. When the results of that election were in, Leicestershire still had seven Conservative MPs and three Labour ones. Six MPs retained their seats, and the four newbies were all of the same colour as their predecessors. The nearest thing the county has to a marginal is Liz Kendall’s seat of Leicester West where Labour has a majority of 4,212. Two of the 10 MPs now sit as Independents: Andrew Bridgen (ex-Conservative) and Claudia Webbe (ex-Labour). Both have – how shall I put it? – colourful histories.
Leicestershire could stand as a proxy for the UK as a whole – the East Midlands’ largest city sits in the middle, surrounded by market towns and rural areas. In 2016, the city voted ‘Remain’, some of the towns were more or less evenly split, while the rural areas were solid ‘Leave’ territory.
So, the Brexit realignment is largely irrelevant in Leicestershire and it does not usually feature in any discussions of the so-called ‘Red Wall’.
Nonetheless, there may yet be a great post-Brexit realignment in the county. Current polling suggests that, in five weeks’ time, Leicestershire may end up with eight Labour MPs, three Conservatives and no independents at all.
Boundary changes
Most of the constituencies in the county are affected by the boundary changes announced last year. The biggest change is that there will be 11 constituencies at the coming election, rather than 10. Rutland and Melton is splitting into the two new constituencies of Rutland and Stamford, and Melton and Syston.
Who is standing?
Many candidates are already safely in place. At time of writing, all the incumbents appear to be standing again, although until the close of nominations on 7 June, nothing is set in stone.
In Leicester East, Claudia Webbe is running as an Independent, as is Andrew Bridgen in North West Leicestershire. Both face uphill battles as their former parties field new candidates against them. Minister for prisons, Edward Argar, has hopped from Charnwood into the new constituency of Melton and Syston. Charnwood itself is being largely subsumed into another new constituency, Mid Leicestershire, which will have a brand new MP to go along with its brand new name.
Much of the county has been solidly Blue for decades. Somehow, this wastrel government has frittered away that support to the point where it is not inconceivable that, on 5 July 2024, nearly three quarters of Leicestershire will have turned Red.
Derbyshire
Derbyshire has a population estimated at just over one million people and 11 parliamentary constituencies, two of which are in the city of Derby. Nine of these 11 are currently Conservative. One Labour seat is in the city (Derby South), held by the Labour veteran, Margaret Beckett. The other, Chesterfield, is held by the shadow minister for rural affairs, Toby Perkins. But it pays to watch Derbyshire – the county has a revolutionary streak. The Kinder Scout Mass Trespass of 1932 led to the creation of our first National Park in 1951.
The county is home to the city of Derby, with a long commercial and trading history, to rural and urban areas, and to the Peak District National Park. It is also arguably the cradle of modern manufacturing, with Richard Arkwright having established the world’s first water powered spinning mill in Cromford in 1771.
In the north of the county lie the constituencies of Derbyshire Dales (with the towns of Matlock and Bakewell), and further north, High Peak (home to Buxton and Glossop), both covering areas of the National Park. Together they could be seen as a microcosm of possible political change. Derbyshire Dales has long been staunchly ‘true blue’, in particular the market town of Bakewell, yet this May it returned its first Labour councillor. High Peak is a classic bellwether constituency that has returned MPs of the winning side at every election in the last 50 years, except for 2017 when Labour’s Ruth George swam against the prevailing currents to beat the local Conservative incumbent. The seat looks likely to swing again as Conservative Robert Largan, who won in 2019, is defending an atomically-thin majority of 590.
CLICK HERE TO DONATE TO OUR CROWDFUNDER
HELP US BECOME STRONGER SO THAT WE CAN CONTINUE TO DELIVER POWERFUL CITIZEN JOURNALISM!
