Gaza has been the focus of several successful independent candidates in the general election. Adnan Hussain knocked out Labour’s Kate Hollern, a former shadow defence minister, in Blackburn. Shockat Adam beat Shadow Paymaster General Jonathan Ashworth in Leicester South. Iqbal Mohamed won Dewsbury and Batley. And Ayoub Khan, who had left the Liberal Democrats following controversy over his views on the Gaza conflict, defeated Khalid Mahmood in Birmingham Perry Barr.
Commentators on the night described these as shock results, but for anyone who had been paying attention to the disquiet over policies on Palestine, they were no surprise.
Gaza: not just a Muslim vote
While some have described this sudden shift in voting patterns as ‘the Muslim vote’, the reality is more complicated. Heather Iqbal, Mohamed’s opponent, is also Muslim, as is Mahmood; and Khan was once declared Politician of the Year at the British Muslim Awards. What’s more, the same upswell of support helped Jeremy Corbyn, who is agnostic, to hold onto his seat in Islington North. There is clearly an effect, with the Labour vote dropping significantly in areas with high Muslim populations, but Muslim votes alone do not account for the difference – concerns about Gaza are more widespread.
What makes a difference, where high Muslim populations are present, is twofold. First, there are more likely to be people around for whom the issue is personal: people who have family members in Gaza, or have friends or neighbours who are afraid for their relatives there. Personal issues really cut through in politics, as one can see from the fact that, for most people who voted Labour, the NHS was the single biggest issue in this election. Second, mosques and community publications create natural organising points through which constituents can identify and rally around specific candidates.
Hidden issues
With little to choose between Labour and the Conservatives in terms of policy on Gaza, it’s not surprising that it doesn’t feature high up in lists of the issues on which people voted, with only 12% listing it among their top five concerns. 44% of Muslim voters considered it a priority but, like others, they tended to rank the NHS and the cost of living crisis as their biggest concerns. Pre-election polling suggests that 64% of Muslims still favoured Labour, but this should be understood in the context of most voters only seeing two candidates as realistically electable options.
In the aftermath of the election, voters know that independent challengers who prioritise the safety of the Palestinian people are a viable choice. This changes the game. The success of these challengers also sends a strong signal about the public’s real feelings on the matter, beyond what most felt able to express at the ballot box. Keir Starmer therefore needs to think not only about the future electoral hazards that could face his party – which won many of its seats by very narrow margins – but also about his duty, as Prime Minister, to represent the country and develop policies that reflect public concern.
Jewish voters and Labour
Were there any electoral gains for Labour from its strong pro-Israel position? This is less clear. Notably, it has regained support from Jewish voters, with over 40% believed to have voted for it in this election, as opposed to 11% in 2019. That level of support is, however, fairly consistent with what it has enjoyed historically, and may simply reflect restored confidence following a period in which claims of antisemitism within the party were rife.
Anecdotally, Jewish voters seem less concerned about policy on Gaza per se than about getting away from its presentation as a culture war issue, which, when employed as a political strategy by various parties around the world, has corresponded with a rise in antisemitic attacks.
Gaza/Israel: a better way forward
When in opposition, Labour may have felt itself constrained on the issue of Gaza because of the way the Conservative Party was endeavouring to use it as a wedge. In government, however, it is in a position to take decisive action, and should it fail to do so, the consequences for it at the next election could be considerable. With the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court having both condemned actions which Benjamin Netanyahu seems determined to go ahead with anyway, history is unlikely to be forgiving of those who continue to sell arms to the Netanyahu regime. Furthermore, that regime is increasingly subject to criticism and challenge within Israel itself, and it’s anyone’s guess as to whether or not it will still be in power in five years. To be a good friend to Israel in the long term, Labour would be well advised to stop arms sales in the short term and focus on supporting the peace process.
There is plenty to be done. Sending aid to Gaza, which has now lost most of its critical infrastructure, is not, in real terms, going to do very much to help those in need. What is needed, alongside an end to the Israeli offensive, is a commitment from the international community to support the rebuilding process: specifically health, transport and education. Investment in these areas would do a great deal to stabilise the situation and enable the survivors of the recent bombardment to work towards a positive future, thereby helping to create regional stability and reduce risks to the rest of the world.
The alternative, either now or later, is an unequal conflict resulting in the annihilation of the Palestinian people. To any civilised person, that should be unacceptable, and in this election UK voters – Muslim and otherwise – have made it clear that they are not prepared to accept it.
