Elon Musk has fallen out badly with Donald Trump over Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’. The bill is a measure which increases spending on defence and border controls, makes cuts in Medicaid, green energy and food benefits and maintains a slew of tax breaks first introduced in Trump’s first term. It is mainly paying for the tax breaks (at a cost of $4.5trn) which will cause a $3.3trn increase in the national debt over the next ten years.
Most Americans agree with Musk that they don’t like the ‘big, beautiful bill’, with 55% opposing it and only 29% supporting it. So now Musk intends to set up the America Party, which will, it seems, target “waste and graft” and portray Republicans and Democrats as partners in crime when it comes to overspending and debt. Musk knows his new party can’t replace the Republicans, but he could rob Trump of his majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives if it focuses its attention on a few senators and perhaps a dozen House Representatives in key marginals.
A big question for Musk is whether there is any room on the political spectrum for a new populist party, which is not Trump’s Republican Party and presumably distinguished from it mainly by a commitment to bring down the US’s huge government debt.
Conservatives have lost support to Farage’s Reform party
A similar question faces Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, because Badenoch has lost support to populist Farage’s Reform UK party and needs to exploit any weaknesses in Reform’s brand of populism.
Reform has only four seats in Parliament, but in local government elections in May, Reform came from nowhere to win 42% of the contested seats. A recent YouGov poll showed Reform on 26%, Labour on 24%, and the Conservatives on 16%.
Partly to appease right-wingers in its ranks, and partly as a measure of expediency, the Conservative Party in Opposition has chosen abrasive populism as a stick to beat Farage. The consequence is that both the Conservatives and Reform are currently tailoring their appeal to the voters who worry most that immigration threatens their cultural identity and that foreigners may be disproportionately responsible for crime and welfare claims in the UK.
In April this year Robert Jenrick, runner-up to Kemi Badenoch in the Conservative leadership election in 2024, was widely reported as calling for a pact between the Conservatives and Reform, but two days later rowed back and ruled out such a pact. Farage ruled out a pact with the Conservatives in 2024 and ruled out Conservative-Reform coalitions for the local elections. His aim is to beat the Tories, not join them.
How can Badenoch get the edge over Farage?
But does Reform have any gaps and blind spots which Badenoch can exploit to steal a march on Farage without just being Reform-lite – or Reform heavy for that matter? A poll early in the year asked Brits considering voting Reform to give their main reason for doing so. 19% said Reform wasn’t Labour or the Conservatives, 18% said Reform’s policies on immigration and 11% said Reform was different with a new approach. The good news for Badenoch is that this polling might suggest that a fair slice of Reform’s support is less than rock solid.
Conservative-leaning economist Julian Jessop recently argued on social media for clearer dividing lines between the UK’s main parties. On his analysis, the Conservatives would be “a pro-growth, centre-right party backing a smaller, more efficient state, free markets and individual choice,” and Reform would be a populist party, promising anything that might win votes (or donations), from anywhere in the political spectrum.”
Jessop does not mention the populist line the Conservatives have been taking of late, which is perhaps a hint against trying to out-Farage Farage, but his assessment of Reform rings true. It does act like a party ready to promise anything to win votes, which is pretty much what they did in the manifesto they published in advance of the local elections this year. The Economist has estimated that the annual costs of Reform UK’s May manifesto would be around £200bn with savings of around £100bn. The gap would amount to “a colossal fiscal shock, blowing up the deficit and straining the gilt market to its limit.”
The Conservatives might focus on fighting debt and overspend
In contrast the Conservatives have in the past at least tried to be a low-spend, low-tax, low-debt party which aims to encourage economic growth by getting out of the way of business. It is hard to imagine Conservative MPs backing down on key welfare cuts put forward by their own Chancellor the way that Labour MPs torpedoed those put forward by Rachel Reeves in June this year.
But do voters care all that much about where their benefits or tax cuts come from? Some seem to. Polling suggests that 33% of Brits who still support the Conservatives do so because of their reputation for economic management, while 44% say it is shared values which keep them loyal to the party – and thrift and good housekeeping are surely Conservative values.
It is still anybody’s guess whether the Conservatives can win back voters from Reform just with promises of being tougher on overspend and ballooning debt. Reform, despite its hugely extravagant promises in its May manifesto, claims it will follow the DOGE/Musk example of savage cuts to public expenditure in the dozen authorities in which it won control in the local elections. But as Trump has shown in his big beautiful bill, and as Farage has shown in his May manifesto, promises to cut spending don’t work if you still spend even more and finance the overspend with massive debt.
Badenoch has not been a great success as a populist
A big argument for Badenoch putting the war against debt and overspend at the top of her agenda is that her sallies into populism have not gone well. She recently floated plans for a more exclusive citizenship, arguing that UK citizenship should be harder to get. Immigrants would have to wait at least 15 years before being eligible, and Badenoch insists that citizenship should only go to people who have shown “a real commitment” to Britain.
Unfortunately for Badenoch, her proposals struck few chords with the public. Only 12% of Conservative voters agreed with her proposal for a 15-year wait for citizenship. Reform voters were a little more supportive, with 15% backing a 15-year wait, and a further 25% thinking a 10-year wait would be right.
Badenoch combines the theme of citizenship with cutting the UK’s welfare bill with a proposal to ban foreigners claiming disability benefits. There would be an exception for EU citizens with settled status, and most temporary migrants cannot claim these benefits anyway.
Badenoch also argues that no claimants with less severe conditions like anxiety and mild depression should be signed off work. Here she is fighting a classic Conservative battle of trying to cut back on the welfare bill, and it is also a battle the Labour government seems to be losing, having had to back down on its own plans when Labour MPs demanded a U-turn.
Returning to classic Conservative territories
Another Conservative division with Reform is over the two-child benefit cap, which Nigel Farage’s party has pledged to scrap. Badenoch responds by caricaturing Farage as “Jeremy Corbyn with a pint and a cigarette”.
That’s better, Kemi. Sound more like a Conservative and you’re in with a chance. You’re rubbish at being a populist.
This is an edited version of an article on the author’s blog. Read the original article.
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