On 24 February, the war in Ukraine will have been grinding on for four years. A war which Russia expected to last only a few days is still raging and now seems very stagnant.
Four years on and the armies are mainly deadlocked. Since the war began, Russia has occupied 29,137 square miles, about 13% of Ukraine’s territory, and at the time of writing in 2026 are making small advances again. In the four weeks from 6th January this year, Russia gained 123 square miles of territory. Russia’s limited progress has been at a massive cost, with an estimated 1.2 million casualties (killed, injured and missing), of which 325,000 have been killed. On the Ukrainian side, the toll is between 500,000 and 600,000, of which an estimated 140,000 were deaths. It really is a grim toll to achieve so little progress. For Ukraine, the cost of human displacement is also high; 10.6 million displaced Ukrainians, 24% of Ukraine’s pre-invasion population of 44 million, which includes approximately 6.9 million internally displaced citizens and 3.7 million international refugees.
Ukraine energy infrastructure battered
Ukraine’s infrastructure has also taken a real pounding. On the night of 2nd to 3rd February 2026, Russia launched its biggest aerial attack so far in 2026, leaving more than 1,170 high-rise buildings in Kyiv without heating and destroying a power plant in the eastern city of Kharkiv beyond repair, leaving 300,000 people there without electricity. Ukraine had lost 80% of its thermal capacity due to Russian attacks as of September 2024. In addition, some 90% of Ukraine’s thermal power generation was destroyed as of May 2025. Some 50% of all of Ukraine’s hydropower installations were damaged and 40% destroyed as of May 2025.
In autumn 2025, Ukraine’s energy infrastructure was operating at only about one-third of its pre-invasion generation capacity. In October 2025, Russia was reported to have destroyed 60% of Ukraine’s gas production ahead of the winter of 2025-2026. The conflict has led to supply chain disruptions and a heavy reliance on international aid. While Ukraine’s economy has shown resilience and the country has received foreign support, it remains significantly below pre-war levels, with reconstruction costs estimated at over $500bn.
Ukraine’s severe economic suffering
The war has also inflicted profound economic damage on Ukraine, far beyond initial projections. The cumulative GDP decline from 2022-2025 is approximately 21.2%. Real GDP growth in 2025 was 1.8%, lower than expected due to intensified Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. This follows a 2.9% growth in 2024. The World Bank projects 2.6% growth in 2026, but only 1% in a prolonged war scenario, reflecting uncertainties about front-line events and the flow of aid. The economy is still more than 20% below its pre-war (2021) level, with the reduction attributed to export declines (nearly 5% in the first half of 2025, especially to the EU), unfavourable weather impacting agriculture, and tightened trade restrictions. Inflation surged due to disruptions caused by the war, including supply chain breaks, higher production costs, and currency pressures from deficit financing for the war. In October 2025, inflation peaked at 26.6% year-on-year. Ukraine is really paying a heavy price for its brave resistance.
The prospects for resolution: bleak
The prospects for an early resolution look equally bleak. In the last year, President Trump has pushed for a negotiated settlement. Last February, Trump announced that he had had calls with Putin and that he was sending a delegation to Saudi Arabia to have peace talks with Russia. This caused consternation in Europe who argued that peace talks had to include Ukraine at the table. The situation hit a real nadir with a much-televised argument between Zelenskyy, Trump, and Vice President JD Vance in the Oval Office.
The year saw a series of stop-start attempts to agree on an overall peace plan, with the Trump administration also behaving erratically about providing military aid to Ukraine. Trump made an additional attempt in November, unveiling a 28-point ‘peace plan’ which would involve Ukraine ceding territory to Russia and agreeing to reduce its military forces. This plan has also made little progress.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has also been highly intransigent in his demands for Ukraine to cede territory. Responding to Trump’s 28-point plan on 17 December 2025, Putin said in a speech: “If the opposing country and its foreign patrons refuse to engage in substantive discussions, Russia will achieve the liberation of its historical lands through military means.” It’s clear that the path to peace will be very difficult as long as Putin is in office.
A tragic war going nowhere
A year ago, writing on the third anniversary of the start of the war, I suggested that Trump’s promise to end the war quickly looked more like hope than substance. The fourth year of the war has been a tragedy, with lives disrupted and lost, large parts of the country’s infrastructure being destroyed, and massive economic disruption to both countries, all for a war that is largely going nowhere.
Interest outside Ukraine has waned significantly, due to a combination of ‘war fatigue’ and the impact of other crises, such as Gaza. The Trump administration’s handling of the crisis has been at best quixotic and it’s my view that even were Trump to be replaced for some reason, the hope that the current Vice President would be any more effective seems far-fetched.
In addition, President Putin shows no sign of looking seriously for a peaceful resolution, despite the significant cost to his country both economically, diplomatically and in lives destroyed and lost. According to a United24 Media analysis, Russia spent over 40% of its GDP on the military in 2025 and it is forecast to be 38.2% this year. Putin can still get away with spending an insane proportion of national income on the war effort. I believe that only the death of Putin could result in any change of policy for Russia.
In summary, I believe that we in Europe need to keep the Ukraine situation in sight and send aid appropriately. I fear it will be another year of senseless tragedy in Ukraine.
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