A study from the Grantham Institute at Imperial College shows how very un-1976 the two recent heatwaves are, and how deadly: “… the 1.4°C of global warming that humans have caused to date, around 1.1°C, has occurred since 1976, when the previous June temperature record was set. We estimate that peak UK temperatures are now around 2-3°C hotter than they would have been in 1976.”
The institute’s press release also claims that “Daytime maximum temperatures across England and Wales are now roughly 3-4°C hotter than they would have been without human-induced climate change, raising the health risks associated with these heatwaves.”
Summer heatwaves shouldn’t be taken lightly
The first 2026 heatwave in our region was brutal: hot and humid and made worse by social media comments romanticising the summer of 1976. I have heard a journalist in a recent climate press briefing, who really should know better, start their questions with common oil lobby tropes such as “more people die from cold”.
There have also been recent calls for more North Sea oil drilling and claims that renewables cannot cope with heat, as stated by Richard Tice of Reform UK, who may or may not have been influenced by oil company donations to Reform UK of £24mn, according to DeSmog. All packaged in the usual way that gets presented as “common sense”.
Heatwave media cover
Downplaying of climate change is helped by media coverage showing people sunbathing, rather than dehydrated gig economy workers driving unsafely and at risk of heatstroke, or shift workers in overheated workplaces loading your newly ordered fan into a box.
Then came the second heatwave, where you probably also heard that ‘greenies’ don’t want you to have air conditioning, but there was a slight shift in discourse, to my ears, towards accepting there was a problem. That is, I noted, very unscientifically, that many more respondents on BBC website comments were backing climate action and shouting down the ‘1976 was worse’ and ‘just enjoy summer’ posters.
Extreme heat is a danger to us all
The Grantham Institute study reported 2,700 excess deaths in England and Wales during the May and June heatwaves. Some may say this is normal, but the study argues otherwise: “It’s estimated that 42% died as a result of the extra heat caused by human-induced warming”, also noting that “the UK has been built for a climate that doesn’t exist anymore and is not adapted to the needs of current and future climate change impacts.” In other words, deaths will rise hugely if we don’t act.
The Grantham study warns that problem is now affecting the Midlands: “While southern England saw the highest temperatures, estimates suggest the death rate (per million population) was similar in the Midlands. With this region less frequently exposed to extreme heat, it suggests residents there are more vulnerable to the impacts.”
Extreme heat also causes slowdowns in productivity of the UK labour force. The study reports on a survey which suggests that “a 1°C positive temperature anomaly from the long-term average increased the probability of a worker reducing their hours by 9.9% and their effort by 9.5%.” Some jobs are more at risk than others, especially for those working outdoors, in construction, transport and tourism.
There is also danger in persistent heat affecting “water availability and crop yields, which can have a spiralling effect on food shortage and inflation, as well as increasing the risk of wildfires”.
Hot and humid
A new factor is hotter, humid nights. It’s hard to cool a house down at night, even if you have managed to prevent heat building up during the day. The report says the nighttime temperatures we have just seen would not have occurred without global warming.
I’ve been trialling various things at home: blackout blinds, closing doors and windows when the outside temperature is at or above that indoors, and opening windows only at night. Despite my best efforts, indoor temperatures rise 1C or more a day, especially when daytime temperatures pass 30C several days in a row. In the first heatwave, this meant the 19C indoor temperature on the Monday morning became 25C by Friday.
And added humidity increases health impacts. Wet-Bulb global temperatures (WBGT) assess the danger from combined heat and humidity. Calculators can show you the risk if you enter live data. Derby was pretty close to being above the serious danger limit at this time. I tested it, but luckily, no longer work as a chef, which would have been high risk.
The study warns that “Humid heat is more dangerous than dry heat because it impairs the body’s ability to cool itself by sweating. Compared with a preindustrial climate, 3 day-maximum WBGT during the June event was around 3°C higher.”
Reform councils’ climate change denial
Reform UK-run Derbyshire County Council website has not mentioned climate change, or how to cope with heat, or advised on locations with air-con in any recent press statements during the heatwave. However, a post of 9 July on its Facebook page does direct people to information on how to stay cool in the hot weather and there are several posts with advice on the wildfires in the area.
For Reform UK, the climate crisis is clearly stuff and nonsense. Last year Andrea Jenkyns said climate change doesn’t exist while Richard Tice said solar panels and heat pumps will not work in heatwaves, so oil and gas are needed.
Newcastle-under-Lyme council, led by Jonathan Gullis, the former Conservative MP, voted to revoke its climate emergency declaration on 10 July, to save money by scrapping the purchase of electric waste vehicles. Gullis calls net zero action “political virtue signalling“.
What future for the Midlands?
The Midlands are going to be increasingly affected, while seeing little action from many councils run by climate change-denying parties. The attribution study however clearly indicates that the hot weather is moving north: “After accounting for population size, during the May heatwave the hardest hit regions per 1,000,000 population were the south-west, London and the south-east, whereas during the June heatwave the heat-related mortality rate per 1,000,000 population was highest in the West Midlands, south-east and south-west.”
Still, it’s not 1976, eh? This was just three years before we missed the decade of opportunity to fix climate change (1979-1989), according to Nathaniel Rich’s 2019 book Losing Earth: The Decade We Could Have Stopped Climate Change. Instead, we got criticism, denial, and political lobbying to delay action.
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