The Roman Catholic Church will now assemble a conclave of its senior cardinals to elect a new pope to lead the Church with just under 1.4 billion believers.
Readers of Dan Brown or Robert Harris will perhaps expect intrigue or skullduggery, but the reality is arguably much more mundane. After a nine-day mourning period, and allowing time for the participants to assemble in the Sistine Chapel, 138 of the 253 current cardinals of the church (excluding any over the age of 80), will assemble for days of discussion and voting for a new pontiff. These electors are, of course, all male.
A new pope: a secret conclave
Each cardinal is sworn to secrecy, so that no details of the discussions and decision-making criteria are ever revealed. The Chapel itself is secured for the discussions, to deter any outside influence in their deliberations.
A successor must receive two thirds of the eligible votes (92 in this case). Conclave spends each day in prayer, discussion and voting. Every day there are four votes: two in the morning and two in the afternoon. Ballots are secret, and in the event of an inconclusive vote, the ballot papers are burned so that black smoke is emitted from the Sistine Chapel, signifying an inconclusive ballot.
When a successful candidate is finally elected, the nominated successor is offered the role and must be willing to accept it. Upon acceptance, the final ballot is burned, with an additive so that the smoke emitted is white, indicating a decisive result to the watching world.
The new pope, having chosen a papal name, is dressed in white and presented on a balcony to the crowds, reporters and cameras, giving a first papal blessing “Urbi et Orbi”, to the Vatican City and to the world.
An Italian pope?
Historically the Roman Church has usually had Italians as the principal national grouping in the College of Cardinals, which in turn has often led to the selection of an Italian pope. Currently 47 cardinals are Italian, although only 13 of these are under the age of 80 and therefore eligible to vote. In addition, the recent precedent has been to elect non-Italian popes, the last one being John Paul I who died after a papacy of only 33 days in 1978.
He was succeeded by Karol Wojtyla , ‘the Polish Pope’, becoming the first non-Italian pope in over 450 years. Wojtyla was succeeded by Pope Benedict, a German, followed by Pope Francis, the first South American Pontiff.
The practice of selecting a non-Italian pope may well continue. The Vatican’s statistics state that the Americas have the highest number of Catholic believers, so perhaps another cardinal from there might be chosen.
Papal runners and riders
So who are considered to be the front runners to become the new pope? (This is perhaps an incongruous term for men of their dignity and age.)
According to the New York Post, the current favourite is Cardinal Pietro Parolin (age 70), a career Vatican diplomat and currently the Vatican’s Secretary of State. He is considered to be a moderate and might be thought of as a continuity candidate, as his views are said to greatly align with those of Pope Francis. Were he to be elected, he would also continue a tradition of Italian popes.
The Independent identifies Cardinal Raymond Burke of the USA as another potential favourite, as he is American. My personal observation is that the Catholic Church in my lifetime appears to have alternated between a liberal pope followed by a more conservative one. Pope Francis has been a highly liberal pope, so Cardinal Burke would tick another box as he is considered to have very conservative beliefs.
There are several other potential candidates, including one from the Philippines and one from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Either of these would become the first pope from their respective continents if elected. Cardinal Besungu from the DRC is the youngest, as a stripling of merely 65 years.
Mysterious ways
The stage is set for the secretive conclave that will select the new spiritual leader for the Church of Rome. The eligible members of the College of Cardinals will conduct their secret, and for the believer, sacred deliberations, selecting a spiritual shepherd for Holy Mother Church.
Whether their choice is a result of spiritual guidance, geopolitics or theological standpoints, or some combination of these, remains to be seen. God is said to move in mysterious ways. And soon, the members of the conclave may well be doing the same.
