On 27 November, a rebel coalition in Syria led by the group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a sudden and ongoing offensive from rebel-controlled territory in Idlib province against government forces in the west Aleppo countryside of northwestern Syria.
Titled Operation Deterrence of Aggression, after just four days of fighting they captured the country’s second largest city Aleppo and dozens of towns and villages as government forces were routed across much of the northwest of Syria.
This is one of the most significant moments of the Syrian Civil War since it began with pro-democracy protests against President Assad in 2011.
Syria’s frontlines of four years rewritten in just four days
During the first day of the offensive, dozens of towns and villages were captured by advancing rebels in the west Aleppo countryside including the key 46th division military base. A Russian special forces team – one of Syria’s closest military allies – was also caught in the fighting with rebel fighters sharing pictures of captured Russian military equipment.
The following day the offensive continued, with rebels capturing more towns and villages. Iran, another of Syria’s key military allies, announced in state media that an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General had been killed in the fighting. Further south, rebels started advancing against government forces in the eastern Idlib countryside. By the end of the day the key M5 highway, which connects Aleppo with the south of the country including the major cities of Hama and Homs, had been cut. Any potential government reinforcements would have found it harder to reach Aleppo. However, no reinforcements came.
The government losses turned to a rout on 29 November as rebels entered the city of Aleppo itself. They seized control of several districts in the western half of the city while continuing to capture ground in rural Aleppo province and Idlib province.
Syria’s Aleppo falls to the rebels
By the morning of the 30th, Aleppo had fallen to the rebels. Videos and pictures taken by rebels and shared widely on social media showed them walking through the terminal of Aleppo international airport on the eastern edge of the city and toppling the statue of Bassel al-Assad (brother of current president Assad).
If the rebels had been surprised by how far they had come they did not seem to show it, with light rebel forces continuing to advance rapidly south along the M5 highway. By nightfall on 30 November, not only was Aleppo city in rebel hands but they had almost reached the entrance of Hama city over 160km south. The entirety of Idlib province and large parts of northern Hama province had fallen to rebels.
In just four days of fighting, rebels had completely rewritten the frontline of Syria and captured territory that they had never before controlled in 13 years of civil war.
Who is HTS in Syria’s fractured landscape?
This offensive was launched by a rebel coalition led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), whose leader is Abu Mohammad al-Jolani.
HTS in its earliest form originated as the al-Nusra Front in late 2011 at the start of the Syrian revolution. Originally part of the Islamic State in Iraq and Al-Qaeda, al-Nusra openly fought with the Islamic State when it created its caliphate in 2013. In 2016, al-Nusra Front severed its ties with al-Qaeda, rebranding itself as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. The next year they merged with several smaller groups in an alliance creating the current HTS.
This history has led them to be listed as a terrorist organisation by the US, however, as Crisis Group point out: “In reality, HTS has forsworn transnational jihad, gone after ISIS and al-Qaeda cells, and subdued most other jihadists”. While they may not be the terrorists some describe them as, they are not moderate. They are opposed to democracy and there are legitimate concerns about human rights abuses by HTS.
In the years since 2020 HTS has continued to evolve. It has consolidated control over the shrinking rebel enclave in Idlib province, establishing what it called the salvation government to deal with civilian affairs and governance, and broadly driven ISIS and al-Qaeda out of Idlib.
This shift can be seen in the current offensive where HTS and their allies have emphasised ideas of Syrian unity and revolution. The free Syrian green, white and black flag can be seen flying across Aleppo and HTS released statements saying that fighters must prioritise preserving “life and property” and describing Syria’s population as “our people of all sects”.
The false ‘calm’ before the current offensive
Before the rebel’s lightning offensive, Aleppo province was almost completely controlled by government forces. They had completely recaptured the city of Aleppo after months of hard fighting and heavy airstrikes in 2016. The final rebel fighters and families were forced to leave to Idlib. Before then the city had been divided in two, half controlled by the government and half by rebels.
In 2020, the last major offensive until now came as a government offensive pushed rebels into Idlib province. A Turkish intervention caused the government offensive to stall, worried about an influx of refugees into Turkey if Idlib was retaken.
Since then, the government-rebel frontline in northwestern Syria has been broadly static. This has led Syria to be falsely described as a frozen conflict. However, while territory may not have traded hands, bombs and bullets did. Raids and shelling were carried out by both sides across the frontline, and Russia regularly carried out airstrikes primarily against civilian areas of rebel-controlled Idlib.
How have the rebels advanced so quickly?
The big question senior government commanders will be being asked by an infuriated Assad, is how they could let this happen? Military bases, towns and cities that were captured in weeks, months, or even years of hard fighting by the government have been given up in hours.
While this offensive took days for the rebels, the preparations took much longer. In a 2013 speech, al-Jolani talked about how the revolution has been stronger than it’s ever been. Before this lightning offensive, comments like this were widely dismissed – but they should have been believed.
Since 2020, HTS have exerted control over rebel groups forming a more unified structure less prone to the infighting that beset rebels in previous years. They have also been effectively training and equipping their forces. Special forces units have been set up, as have specialist drone formations. In the first days of this offensive, these were key to disrupting and overwhelming government positions.
The government, meanwhile, has been regressing militarily. They are not a single force but a collection of different units and militias. Many are more focused on corruption and making money than improving the military. The fourth division, for example, has spent more time helping produce and smuggle the drug captagon into the Gulf states and Europe than training.
Perhaps the biggest issue for Assad is his allies. He was able to retake much of the country due to the heavy lifting of Russian airstrikes and special forces, Iranian advisors and their foreign militias, and Hezbollah. All three are currently facing bigger issues. Russia has committed their military and their entire economy to the invasion of Ukraine, Hezbollah is fighting a ground war against Israel in Lebanon, and Iran is distracted by fighting Israel as well.
These various factors allowed rebels unprecedented success in their most recent offensive.
The situation now, and what happens next?
On the first day of December, the rebel offensive slowed as governments rushed reinforcements to stall their rapid advance and the rebels themselves struggled to keep up with just how successful they have been.
In the north of the country, the Syrian National Army (SNA) started their own offensive. They have advanced in what remains of the government positions in eastern Aleppo and have also launched an offensive against SDF positions in Aleppo. HTS have been doing sweeps in the areas they rapidly captured, trying to mop up any government forces that did not retreat.
Both have also been picking up the extensive weapons and equipment that government forces left behind as they retreated. The amount that has been captured demonstrated just how bad the rout was. Warehouses full of weapons and ammunition, countless tanks, a Pantsir-S1 air defence system, and even fighter aircraft.
Elsewhere, those who oppose Assad have been inspired by the Aleppo offensive. In Daraa, where the Syrian revolution first started but had been recaptured completely by the government in 2018, many have been taking to the streets protesting or outright attacking government positions.
HTS’s bigger challenge may be trying to administer the areas they have captured, with their population likely doubling in a matter of days. Looking at a map, just how much territory rebels have captured is clear, doubling the size of rebel controlled Idlib.
Following the chaos that came from such a rapid advance, the main government-rebel frontline appears to be solidifying at the outskirts of the city of Hama in central Syria. The government has rushed reinforcements into Hama to try and hold the rebels there.
There, more rebels have caught up with the forces that rapidly advanced down the M5 that caught so much of the territory in the opening days. While the drone forces that were so effective in helping the Aleppo offensive have now arrived, they are already making their mark killing the head of the government Military Security Branch in Hama.
The rebels themselves show no signs of planning to stop their offensive, summarised by al-Jolani himself in a recently released video where he said, “we will not rest until we reach Damascus”. That may be a long way off, if it happens at all, but what is certain is that rebels are closer to that goal than at any point since the early years of the Syrian Civil War.
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