“Before humans heated the climate with fossil fuels, such heatwaves were expected every 50 years, but today, they are expected every five years.”
That’s the conclusion of a rapid attribution study by World Weather Attribution (WWA), an international collaborative group that studies weather events and the likelihood they were caused by climate change, looking at June 2025’s first UK heatwave, that began on 16 June.
While most of the study area was in the South-East of England, parts cover the Midlands.
In spite of heatwaves, fossil fuel lobby slams on the brakes
One of the team, Dr Ben Clarke, Researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy Imperial College London, said: “With every fraction of a degree of warming, the UK will experience hotter, more dangerous heatwaves. That means more heat deaths, more pressure on the NHS, more transport disruptions, tougher work conditions and poorer air quality.”
Here in Derbyshire and in other parts of the region and country, we have Reform UK-run councils railing against net-zero, and likely, as Carbon Brief have pointed out, to act as a brake on investment in renewables. The clearer the crisis, the harder the fossil fuel lobby and its carbon-captured politicians resist action. And it is clear: WWA, which I follow assiduously, normally to monitor climate change’s impacts on cotton growing countries, rates recent heatwaves as 100% more likely because of “fossil fuel” warming.
Health impacts – the dangers of excessive heat
As a reminder, during 2022’s heatwaves, over 60,000 people died across Europe. The WWA study warns the heatwave is “dangerous for people with underlying health conditions, […] putting human health, the NHS and economy at risk”. It was particularly risky for vulnerable groups, including older people living alone (remember to check your neighbours), and those with underlying health conditions, as well as anyone working outdoors (or in already hot places, like improperly ventilated factories or warehouses). Another study co-author, Maja Vahlberg, Technical Advisor at Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, said: “Sadly most people die from heat indoors and alone, especially older populations and people with underlying health conditions, such as lung or heart disease.”
In this sense, heat health impacts are similar to Covid-19 as well: they impact the people on the shop floor, in healthcare, in food production, and those making deliveries. The wealthy can buy more protection, including air con units. Dr Friederike Otto, Associate Professor in Climate Science at the Centre for Environmental Policy Imperial College London, said “People working in air-conditioned offices will probably be okay this week, but poorer people working outdoors, in kitchens, and in other hot environments endure these conditions all day and then return to poorly insulated flats that can become dangerously hot. Making our societies more equal is essential to reduce the impacts of climate change.”
The heatwave will also put strain on hospitals that are still creaking from Covid-19 and years of austerity and where getting to see a GP remains a struggle. On top of which, the authors say the UK government is not yet properly monitoring the impacts of heat on healthcare.
Burning peaks, failing crops?
Meanwhile, here in Derbyshire we’ve already seen burning peatlands this year. And we must fear more as tourist season is upon us.
It may be too soon to know the impact of this year’s dry and hotter weather on crops, but farming is impacted. In my work on sustainable agriculture, I recently came across some stark facts. One, soil moisture content is declining, affecting soil fertility/crop yield, and carbon sequestration. Two, moisture in the air is increasing, according to the EUs Copernicus satellite data service. The water that is disappearing from our soils is in the atmosphere instead, accelerating the greenhouse effect and making extreme weather more extreme (and later in the year it may yet again challenge our flood defences).
Building resilience is critical
Resilience is critical to manage global heating: housing, food defences, water supplies, food supply, healthcare, finance and workplaces. Too often we are fighting last centuries’ wars by insulating homes from cold and failing to protect them from heat; hence, we install air to water heat pumps, where other countries are promoting air to air (which provides cooling in summer). We put solar panels on former farmland rather than keeping farmland going under agrivoltaic panels (which can protect from heat, and excess rainfall).
WWA also commented here, arguing that: “While recent building regulations in England require new homes to consider extreme heat, most existing homes remain vulnerable to overheating in summer.” Inequality strikes again, as they note: “Deprived urban areas are known to experience hotter conditions because the housing is denser and there are fewer trees or parks that can help lower temperatures.”
We’re not used yet to checking wet-bulb temperature yet before doing anything arduous. In other parts of the world, they’re experimenting with satellite-driven early warning systems to enable cotton pickers and workers to take shelter before their lives are put at risk when heat and humidity overwhelm the body’s capacity to cool itself.
Things can only get … reformed?
While the prediction now is for this to be a once in every five-year event, as we hurtle past the 1.5C Paris agreement target, we are likely to be revisiting this before too long. Perhaps even next year. So, if you have a Reform UK or otherwise climate-sceptic local councillor or MP, now is the time to ask them what they’re doing to ensure the UKs resilience to extreme temperatures and so protect you, your neighbours and elderly relatives.
